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7月開(kāi)始了高溫的模式，而鋼價(jià)在漸漸下跌，淡季開(kāi)始了嗎？往后還要面臨錯(cuò)鋒用電政策呢。因此最近的鋼鐵行情，將會(huì)面臨更嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn)。

July began the high temperature mode, and steel prices are gradually falling, the off-season began? In the future, we will have to face the wrong front electricity policy. Therefore, the recent steel market, will face a more severe test.

鋼材是關(guān)系到國(guó)計(jì)民生的重要大宗商品，其價(jià)格的波動(dòng)受到眾多因素的影響。

Steel is an important commodity related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and its price fluctuations are affected by many factors.

以7月6日為例，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格漲跌互現(xiàn)，均價(jià)下跌

On July 6, for example, spot prices were mixed and average prices fell

那么影響當(dāng)前鋼價(jià)的因素有：

The factors affecting the current steel prices are:

1、據(jù)中鋼協(xié)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2022年6月下旬，重點(diǎn)鋼企粗鋼日均產(chǎn)量209.91萬(wàn)噸，環(huán)比下降7.03%；鋼材庫(kù)存量1694.86萬(wàn)噸，比上一旬（及6月中旬）減少357.46萬(wàn)噸，降低17.42%。

1. According to the data of CISA, in late June 2022, the average daily output of key steel enterprises was 2,099,100 tons, down 7.03% from the previous month on month; the steel inventory was 16.948,6 million tons, down 3.5746 million tons, from 10.00 (and mid-June) by 17.42%.

分析師觀點(diǎn)：粗鋼日產(chǎn)與鋼材庫(kù)存雙雙下降，且鋼材庫(kù)存降幅環(huán)比擴(kuò)大，鋼材供應(yīng)將有所收縮，有利于緩解鋼材市場(chǎng)供需矛盾，推動(dòng)供需平衡，穩(wěn)定鋼材市場(chǎng)價(jià)格，穩(wěn)定鋼市發(fā)展預(yù)期，利好鋼價(jià)。

Analysts' view: crude steel Nissan and steel inventory both fell, and steel inventory decline expanded month-on-month, steel supply will shrink, is conducive to alleviate the steel market supply and demand contradiction, promote the balance of supply and demand, stabilize steel market prices, stable steel market development expectations, good steel prices.

2、北京時(shí)間7月5日晚，美元指數(shù)刷新近20年新高，最高一度近106.6歐元兌美元匯率則跌至近20年低點(diǎn)。能源股全線走低，?？松梨诘?/font>3.13%，雪佛龍跌2.7%，康菲石油跌6.97%，斯倫貝謝跌6.51%，西方石油跌2.22%。

2. On the evening of July 5, Beijing time, the DOLLAR index hit a new 20-year high, and the highest exchange rate of nearly 106.6 euro against the US dollar fell to a nearly 20-year low against the US dollar. Energy stocks fell across the board, with Exxon Mobil down 3.13%, Chevron down 2.7%, Conocophillips down 6.97%, Schlumberger down 6.51% and Occidental oil down 2.22%.

分析師觀點(diǎn)：美元指數(shù)創(chuàng)歷史新高，引發(fā)全球?qū)?jīng)濟(jì)“衰退”的恐慌情緒；同時(shí)，美元升值導(dǎo)致以美元結(jié)算的貨幣的貶值，引發(fā)大宗商品價(jià)格下行壓力增加。今天期貨盤面一度深跌，全天呈現(xiàn)寬幅震蕩走勢(shì)，也是市場(chǎng)恐慌情緒的一種釋放，中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，大宗商品價(jià)格仍然承壓運(yùn)行，原材料對(duì)鋼價(jià)支撐走弱。

Analysts: The dollar index hit record highs, raising global fears about a "recession" and a stronger dollar-dollar currencies, mounting downward pressure on commodity prices. Today's futures disk once fell deep, the whole day showed a wide shock trend, is also a release of market panic, in the medium and long term, commodity prices are still under pressure operation, raw materials to the steel price support is weak.

3、目前，22城今年首輪集中土拍已悉數(shù)收官，第二輪土拍進(jìn)展近半。部分三四線城市也于近期開(kāi)展了集中土拍。相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，得益于首輪集中供地實(shí)施、供地規(guī)則優(yōu)化和拿地門檻降低，6月份土地市場(chǎng)成交環(huán)比回升，流拍現(xiàn)象有所好轉(zhuǎn)。

3. At present, the first round of concentrated land auction in 22 cities this year has been completed, and the second round of land auction has progressed for nearly half. Some third-tier and fourth-tier cities have also recently launched a centralized land auction. Relevant data show that thanks to the implementation of the first round of centralized land supply, the optimization of land supply rules and the reduction of the threshold of land acquisition, the land market transaction in June rebounded month-on month, and the phenomenon of failed auction has improved.

分析師觀點(diǎn)：隨著市場(chǎng)信心恢復(fù)和融資環(huán)境改善，民營(yíng)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)拿地意愿或逐步回升，預(yù)計(jì)下半年土地市場(chǎng)成交將繼續(xù)呈現(xiàn)回暖勢(shì)頭。但短期來(lái)看，樓市的寒冬仍在持續(xù)，建材鋼需釋放難有明顯改觀，利空鋼價(jià)。鋼材價(jià)格是市場(chǎng)各方博弈的結(jié)果。影響鋼材價(jià)格的因素有很多，最主要的是供求關(guān)系。影響供求關(guān)系的深層次因素有宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、貨幣政策、匯率政策、出口因素、原材料成本、鋼廠產(chǎn)量、市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存、國(guó)際市場(chǎng)、期貨和電子交易等。

Analysts' views: With the recovery of market confidence and the improvement of the financing environment, the willingness of private real estate enterprises to acquire land may gradually recover, and it is expected that the land market transaction will continue to show a recovery momentum in the second half of the year. But in the short term, the winter of the property market is still continuing, building materials steel needs to release is difficult to significantly improve, negative steel prices. Steel prices is the result of the game in the market. There are many factors affecting the price of steel, the most important is the relationship between supply and demand. The underlying factors affecting the supply and demand relations are macroeconomic, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, export factors, raw material costs, steel mill production, market inventory, international market, futures and electronic trading.

佛山市萬(wàn)慶物資有限公司建議想及時(shí)了解和掌握鋼鐵行業(yè)的動(dòng)態(tài)變化，在平時(shí)的工作中，應(yīng)關(guān)注鋼鐵產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量旬報(bào)、月報(bào)，進(jìn)出口快報(bào)，各類價(jià)格指數(shù)，社會(huì)庫(kù)存，鋼鐵工業(yè)下游行業(yè)運(yùn)行分析等重要統(tǒng)計(jì)信息，只有了解了行業(yè)的生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)行情況，才能更好地把握市場(chǎng)。

Analysts' views: With the recovery of market confidence and the improvement of the financing environment, the willingness of private real estate enterprises to acquire land may gradually recover, and it is expected that the land market transaction will continue to show a recovery momentum in the second half of the year. But in the short term, the winter of the property market is still continuing, building materials steel needs to release is difficult to significantly improve, negative steel prices. Steel prices is the result of the game in the market. There are many factors affecting the price of steel, the most important is the relationship between supply and demand. The underlying factors affecting the supply and demand relations are macroeconomic, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, export factors, raw material costs, steel mill production, market inventory, international market, futures and electronic trading.

目前我國(guó)鋼材貿(mào)易企業(yè)面臨的形勢(shì)比較嚴(yán)峻，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的趨勢(shì)仍在持續(xù)，對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的不利影響在擴(kuò)大，市場(chǎng)需求減弱，生產(chǎn)成本仍處高位，出口困難，鋼材價(jià)格仍在低位徘徊。而且國(guó)家實(shí)施從緊的貨幣政策，既對(duì)企業(yè)資金運(yùn)作提出更高的要求，也給企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)帶來(lái)較大困難，行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益已從微利趨向面臨虧損。形勢(shì)逼人，要求我們要更加準(zhǔn)確地把握市場(chǎng)。我們必須對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外鋼鐵市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)、市場(chǎng)需求、價(jià)格波動(dòng)原因等因素做更加深入的分析和研究。

At present, China's steel trade enterprises are facing a relatively grim situation, the global economic slowdown The trend is still continuing, and the adverse impact on China's economic growth is expanding, and the market demand is weakening, Production costs are still high, exports are difficult, and steel prices are still hovering low. And the country The implementation of a tight monetary policy not only puts forward higher requirements for enterprise capital operation, but also for enterprises Industry operation brings great difficulties, the industry economic benefits have been faced from a small profit to a loss.terrain It requires us to grasp the market more accurately. We must treat the steel markets at home and abroad Field situation, market demand, price fluctuation reasons and other factors to do more in-depth analysis and research.